These notes comment on & analyse the covid pandemic in the UK. In the early phase we argued for a strategy to suppress the virus, as in S Korea, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, New Zealand. Note4Quotes 01April – from Profs Costello, Portes, Philo,Pike. Data&Papers
SciNote35 23 August 2023. In 2023 – 29,800 excess deaths to date. Pandemic ‘not over’. No monitoring, no clean air, no masks, vaccines limited.No information or advice how to avoid infection & long term damage
SciNote34 19 Jan 2023. 2022: 50K excess deaths. 5th Covid wave peaked in Dec. ~3m. infected. 33K covid deaths in 2022 – maybe more 000’s from post-covid conditions . Hospitals overwhelmed: ‘3-500 a week’ dying in ambulances/corridors. 2023: no plan for covid , vaccines waning, no plan for the NHS.
SciNote33 27 Nov 2022 4th wave subsiding but still too much illness ‘with’ & ‘post’ – covid. Sickness & excess deaths normalised, harming the NHS & the economy. ‘It’s not over’. 7 point protection could suppress it, but no leadership
SciNote32 24 Oct 2022. Autumn wave: 2.1m infected, ~780 deaths per week, 10,000 in hospital. NHS crisis still getting worse: – 7m waiting for treatment.No mitigations, guidance, discussion. Vaccination: limited availability
SciNote30 June 27 2022. New wave: up 29% in a week:1.7 m infected High infection: risk of future ill population 2m with Long Covid: confused messaging
SciNote25 20th Dec. 2021. Variant doubles every two days: ‘circuit breaker needed now’ Government rejects advice: more hospitalised more deaths
SciNote21 19th July 2021. UK infection among the highest: controls dropped ‘defies logic’, ‘disaster’, ’murderous’ ,– scientists ‘could vaccinate young people, but let them fall ill’. Prospect: 12m infections, 30-40K deaths, Long Covid
SciNote20 22nd June. 2021 Delayed ‘step 4’ inevitable, July19 will be worse ‘living with it’ means more deaths inaction: safer schools/ workplaces, contact tracing, Some data suppressed, and science distorted Vaccine could help suppress infections & deaths
SicNote19 25th May. 2021 Infection, variants increasing: further social mixing should be delayed. Local test & tracing still hobbled by the national test & trace system. Mixed messages on foreign travel: border controls inadequate
SciNote18 6 Apr. 2021 Roadmap to where? We are to ‘live with it’, not ‘suppress it’.
A further wave of infection likely, despite vaccination and testing
Find, Test, Trace, Isolate, Support – ‘FTTIS’ still not working
SciNote17 16 Feb. 2021. Vaccines not the complete answer – especially with variants Second wave lockdown exit – the crucial choice : ‘suppress to near zero’ or ‘live with it’ and face further lockdowns. Find, Test, Trace, Isolate, Support – ‘FTTIS’ has to work
SciNote16 19 Jan. 2021. Sept 21 2020: 1,500 hospital cases, science rejected
Jan 19: 37,946 cases, hospitals overwhelmed 100,000 deaths – the worst death rate of major countries Vaccines not the holy grail, Test/Trace/Isolate still has to work
SciNote15 22 Dec. 2020. Sept 21: 1,500 hospital cases, science rejected. Dec 18: 19,000 cases , science accepted – extra deaths 25,000. Govt. has not adopted the best strategy – ‘suppress the virus’. saves the economy by minimising lockdowns. but needs ‘Test trace & isolate’ to be made to work.infected people and contacts have to be supported to isolate. a suppressed virus cannot mutate to more infectious strains
SciNote14 26 Oct 2020. Infection and deaths allowed to increase – economy damaged. Science rejected in favour of ineffective regional tinkering. Infections up tenfold – successful strategy (S Korea etc.) ignored. No rebuilding ‘Test & Trace’ – it is still getting worse.
SciNote13 11 Oct 2020. ‘S Korea, Taiwan, etc. approach works’ – but not discussed. Ignored in sterile public debate: ‘lockdown’ vs ‘herd immunity’
‘Test &Trace’- vital to suppress virus, but still not working
Weeks lost – ‘wait & react’, instead of ‘anticipate & suppress’
SciNote12 22nd Sept 2022. New government restrictions unlikely to bring infections down.‘Second wave’ – new infections doubling each week
‘Test and Trace’ dysfunctional, losing track, needs rebuilding.
‘No strategy’ – the worst of both worlds on health and the economy
Aim should have been to suppress virus in summer (S Korea, Taiwan..)
Labs. & contact tracers should be integrated into a public test & trace system.
SciNote11 02nd Sept. ‘Back to school’ – but infection increasing.
SciNote10 5th July Virus not suppressed – it will continue to damage the economy.
SciNote9 11th June Lifting lockdown requires suppressing infection first.
SciNote8 11th May The UK outbreak can be suppressed – but won’t be.
SciNote7 1st May The UK outbreak can be suppressed – and must be.
SciNote6 21th April The UK outbreak can be suppressed – but not like this.
SciNote5 09th April The UK outbreak can be suppressed – but is that the aim?